다국어인구학사전, 두 번째 통합본, 한국어판

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701

인구성장¹은 출생,사망,이동의 상호작용으로 결정된다. 인구감소²는 인구의 마이너스성장³으로 간주하면 편리하다. 인구는 봉쇄인구⁴ 와 개방인구⁵로 구별할 수 있다. 전자는 유입•유출 중 이동 없이 인구 증가가 출생과 사망의 차이에 전적으로 의존하고있는 반면, 후자의 경우에는 이동이 존재한다. 개방 인구의 증가는 이동의 차이⁶ 또는 순이동⁶, 및 자연증가⁷로 구성된다. 이 자연 증가는 사망 대비 출생의 초과⁸, 때로는 출생과 사망의 차이⁸라고도한다.

• 1. 인구의 제로 성장은 크기가 변하지 않는 인구를 의미한다.

702

The ratio of total growth in a given period to the mean population of that period is called the growth rate¹. Occasionally this rate is computed with the population at the beginning of the period rather than with the mean population as a denominator. When population increase over a period of more than one calendar year is studied, the mean annual rate of growth² may be computed. In computing this rate it is sometimes assumed that the population is subjected to exponential growth³ during the period, and time is treated as a continuous variable. The size of an exponential population⁴ would grow as an exponential function of time. The exponential growth rate⁵ is equal to the instantaneous rate of growth⁵. The ratio of natural increase (701-7) to the average population during a period is called the crude rate of natural increase⁶ and is equal to the difference between the crude birth rate and the crude death rate. The vital index⁷ is the ratio of the number of births to the number of deaths during a period; this measure is no longer much used.

• 3. When time is treated as a discrete variable, reference is made to geometric growth.
• 4. This is occasionally called a Malthusian population, but the term is ambiguous in view of its sociological connotations (see 906-1).

703

It can be shown that when a closed population (701-4) is subjected to constant age-specific fertility and mortality rates (631-8; 412-1) for a sufficiently long period of time, its annual rate of increase will tend to become constant. This constant rate of increase is called the intrinsic rate of natural increase¹, and a population which has reached this stage is called a stable population². The proportion of persons in different age groups in such a population will be constant, i.e., the population will have a stable age distribution³. This stable age distribution is independent of the initial age distribution⁴ and depends only on the fertility and mortality rates that are kept constant. Human populations never reach exact stability in practice, as fertility and mortality rates constantly change, but the computation of a stable population as a model and of its intrinsic rates may provide an index of the growth potential⁵ of a set of age-specific fertility rates. A stable population in which the intrinsic rate of natural increase is zero is called a stationary population⁶. In such a population the numbers in a given age group are equal to the integral of the survivorship function (431-3) of the life tables taken between the upper and lower age limits of the group, multiplied by a factor of proportionality common to all age groups. A quasi-stable population⁷ is a formerly stable population with constant fertility and gradually changing mortality. A logistic population⁹ is a population growing in accordance with the logistic law¹⁰ of growth, i.e., a population in which the growth rate decreases as a linear function of the population already alive and which will tend asymptotically to an upper limit.

• 1. The intrinsic rate, also called by its inventor Lotka, the true rate of natural increase, is equal to the difference between the intrinsic birth rate (or stable birth rate) and the intrinsic death rate (or stable death rate).
• 2. Stable, adj. - stability, n. - stabilize, v.
  Stable population analysis uses the properties of stable population models to estimate various characteristics of real populations.
• 6. Stationary, adj. - stationarity, n.